Original article (Clinical research)

Study on noninvasive prediction indicators for incidence of esophageal varices of patients with liver cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B

  • ZHAO Dan ,
  • MAO Hua ,
  • HUANG Chun-chi ,
  • et al
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  • Department of Grastroenterology, Zhujiang Hosipital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510580, China

Online published: 2015-03-26

Supported by

Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province, 2009B030801212

Abstract

Objective To investigate noninvasive indicators for the incidence of esophageal varices (EV) of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods A total of 274 inpatients with liver cirrhosis were selected. The gender, age, etiology, platelet count (PLT), total bilirubin, albumin, coagulation time, international normalized ratio (INR), fecal occult blood (OB), spleen diameter (SD), spleen thickness, and width of portal vein of patients were recorded. The variance analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were conducted for indicators of 150 patients with liver cirrhosis. The prediction model was established. The prediction model, PLT, and PLT/SD were used to verify whether other 124 patients with liver cirrhosis developed EV. AUCROC, sensitivity, and specificity of patients were compared. Results The multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the model that was established by test results of PLT, SD, INR, and OB could be used to predict the incidence of EV of patients with liver cirrhosis (P<0.05). Computation results of AUCROC showed that the AUCROC (95%CI) of prediction model was 0.925 (0.881, 0.969), the model was correlated with PLT/SD (χ2=7.212, P=0.007) and PLT (χ2=9.412, P=0.002); and PLT/SD was correlated with PLT (χ2=0.186, P=0.666), which indicated that the prediction model was better for predicting the incidence of EV. Conclusion The prediction model that is established by test results of PLT, SD, INR, and OB is helpful for predicting the incidence of EV of patients with liver cirrhosis.

Cite this article

ZHAO Dan , MAO Hua , HUANG Chun-chi , et al . Study on noninvasive prediction indicators for incidence of esophageal varices of patients with liver cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Medical Science), 2015 , 35(3) : 386 . DOI: 11.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2015.03.016

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