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Study on epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing and prediction of epidemiological tendency

TANG Xiao-jing1, ZENG Qing1, WU Tian-yong2, LI Qin3, ZHAO Han3, YI Juan3, XIAO Da-yong3, XIA Yu3, YANG Rong-gang4, FANG Ming-jin4   

  1. 1.Department of Biostatistics and Information Management， Chongqing Medical University， Chongqing 400016， China; 2. Luzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Luzhou 646000， China; 3.Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Chongqing 400016， China; 4.Office of Emergency Treatment, Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, Chongqing 401147, China
  • Online:2014-11-28 Published:2014-12-02
  • Supported by:

    Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, 2011-2-583

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Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing and the epidemiological tendency in the future. Methods The data of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing were analyzed by the descriptive epidemiological method. The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing was modeled and analyzed by the time series for casting system of SAS/ETS. Results From 2008 to 2013, a total of 11 595 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Chongqing and the average annual incidence was 64.07/100 000. Among them, 89 cases died and the average annual mortality rate was 0.51/100 000. Male cases were more than female cases. Most patients were 0-5-year-old (96.56%) scattered living children (58.97%) and kindergarten children (36.94%). Each county and district of Chongqing reported cases. The incidence of major 9 urban districts was significantly higher than that of suburbs. The onset had an obvious seasonal trend. A single epidemic peak appeared and between March and August of 2008—2011 and two epidemic peak appeared between March and August and October and December of 2012—2013. The epidemic peak of October-December was higher than that of March-August. The prediction model that was automatically screened by the time series forcasting system of SAS/ETS was a seasonal exponential smoothing model. The results of prediction showed that the trend of incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2014 was upward and a peak would appear between May and August. Conclusion Obvious differences of gender, age, occupation, region, and season exist for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing during 2008—2013. The seasonal exponential smoothing method can satisfactorily simulate the variation trend of time series for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing and is important for guiding the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease.

Key words: hand-foot-mouth disease, Chongqing, seasonal exponential smoothing model, SAS/ETS