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Preliminary system dynamics study on incidence of cardiovascular disease

CHENG Jie1,2, SHI Li-li1,3, JIANG Jun-jie1, CAI Yu-yang1   

  1. 1.School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200025, China; 2.Deans office Ruijin Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025; 3.System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen, Bergen N5020, Norway

  • Online:2016-03-28 Published:2017-06-02
  • Supported by:

    Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China，“863”Program， 2013AA020418; the Fourth Round of Three-year Action Plan on Public Health Discipline and Talent Program: Evidence-based Public Health and Health Economics， 15GWZK0901

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Abstract:

Objective To build a system dynamics simulation model for incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Shanghai registered population, simulate the development process of CVD and predict the development trend. Methods A system dynamics model structure for incidence of CVD was constructed according to current studies on risk factors in CVD. Data of related risk factors were obtained via literature research. The corresponding model was simulated, corrected, and verified. Results The resultant model simulated the data of CVD during 2002-2010 in Shanghai registered population and simulation results matched the historical data very well. The incidence of CVD in Shanghai registered population in 2020 was predicted based on successful data test. Conclusion This model can simulate and predict the annual increase in CVD population in Shanghai registered population if risk factors in CVD are not affected and provide theoretic support for developing efficient intervention policies.

Key words: cardiovascular disease;system dynamics, intervention on disease prevention