Abstract:

Objective To compare the prediction value of the Chinese System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation (SinoSCORE) and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) for patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgeries in China, and to confirm the fitness of SinoSCORE for predicting OPCAB. Methods The data of patients who underwent OPCAB between July 2004 and July 2013 in Department of Cardiovascular Surgery of Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, was collected．SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE were used separately to predict the mortality which was then compared with the observed mortality．The end point of the study was postoperative in-hospital death. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was adopted to evaluate calibration．The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the discrimination. Results Among 1 530 patients, 23 died in hospital and the observed mortality was 1.50％. The predicted mortalities of SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE were 2.69％ and 4.73％, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for SinoSCORE was non-significant (P=0.612) and the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.796．For EuroSCORE, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was significant (P=0.013) and the area under ROC curve was 0.782.Both SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE showed good discrimination, but the calibration and prediction of SinoSCORE were better than EuroSCORE. Conclusion SinoSCORE is more suitable than EuroSCORE for predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality of OPCAB patients in China. Moreover, SinoSCORE is an appropriate assessment system for in-hospital mortality prediction for patients undergoing OPCAB in China.

Key words: off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting, SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE, death evaluation