上海交通大学学报（医学版）

上海交通大学学报（医学版）

• 论著（预防医学） • 上一篇    下一篇

重庆市手足口病2008—2013年流行特征及趋势预测研究

唐小静1，曾 庆1，吴田勇2, 李 勤3，赵 寒3，易 娟3，肖达勇3，夏 宇3，杨荣刚4，方明金4   

  1. 1.重庆医科大学卫生统计与信息管理教研室， 重庆 400016; 2.四川省泸州市疾病预防控制中心, 泸州 646000; 3.重庆市疾病预防控制中心， 重庆 400042; 4.重庆市卫生局卫生应急办公室， 重庆 401147
  • 出版日期:2014-11-28 发布日期:2014-12-02
  • 作者简介:唐小静（1988—）， 女， 硕士生; 电子信箱: tangxiaojing0605@sina.com。
  • 基金资助:

    重庆市卫生局科技计划项目（2011-2-583）

Study on epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing and prediction of epidemiological tendency

TANG Xiao-jing1, ZENG Qing1, WU Tian-yong2, LI Qin3, ZHAO Han3, YI Juan3, XIAO Da-yong3, XIA Yu3, YANG Rong-gang4, FANG Ming-jin4   

  1. 1.Department of Biostatistics and Information Management， Chongqing Medical University， Chongqing 400016， China; 2. Luzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Luzhou 646000， China; 3.Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention， Chongqing 400016， China; 4.Office of Emergency Treatment, Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, Chongqing 401147, China
  • Online:2014-11-28 Published:2014-12-02
  • Supported by:

    Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, 2011-2-583

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摘要：

目的 分析重庆市手足口病2008—2013年的流行特征及未来趋势。方法 运用描述性流行病学方法，分析重庆市2008—2013年报告的手足口病发病资料，利用SAS/ETS的时间序列预测系统对重庆市2008—2013年手足口病发病进行建模与分析。结果 2008—2013年重庆市共报告手足口病例111595例，死亡89例，年均发病率64.07/10万，死亡率0.51/10万；男性发病数多于女性；发病集中在0～5岁的儿童（96.56%）；各职业中，以散居儿童（58.97%）、幼托儿童（36.94%）为主；全市各区县均有病例报告，主城9区发病率高于远郊区县；发病有明显的季节性特点，2008—2011年发病数在3—8月呈单峰流行，2012年、2013年3—8月和10—12月出现两个流行峰，10—12月流行峰较3—8月更高。SAS/ETS时间序列预测系统自动筛选出的预测模型为季节性指数平滑模型，结果提示2014年手足口病发病有继续上升的趋势，在5—8月有一个发病高峰。结论 重庆市2008—2013年手足口病发病存在明显的性别、年龄、职业、地区、季节差异，季节性指数平滑法能较好地模拟重庆市手足口病发病在时间序列上的变动趋势，对手足口病的防控具有重要的指导意义。

关键词: 手足口病, 重庆市, 季节性指数平滑模型, SAS/ETS

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing and the epidemiological tendency in the future. Methods The data of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing were analyzed by the descriptive epidemiological method. The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing was modeled and analyzed by the time series for casting system of SAS/ETS. Results From 2008 to 2013, a total of 11 595 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Chongqing and the average annual incidence was 64.07/100 000. Among them, 89 cases died and the average annual mortality rate was 0.51/100 000. Male cases were more than female cases. Most patients were 0-5-year-old (96.56%) scattered living children (58.97%) and kindergarten children (36.94%). Each county and district of Chongqing reported cases. The incidence of major 9 urban districts was significantly higher than that of suburbs. The onset had an obvious seasonal trend. A single epidemic peak appeared and between March and August of 2008—2011 and two epidemic peak appeared between March and August and October and December of 2012—2013. The epidemic peak of October-December was higher than that of March-August. The prediction model that was automatically screened by the time series forcasting system of SAS/ETS was a seasonal exponential smoothing model. The results of prediction showed that the trend of incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2014 was upward and a peak would appear between May and August. Conclusion Obvious differences of gender, age, occupation, region, and season exist for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing during 2008—2013. The seasonal exponential smoothing method can satisfactorily simulate the variation trend of time series for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing and is important for guiding the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease.

Key words: hand-foot-mouth disease, Chongqing, seasonal exponential smoothing model, SAS/ETS