上海交通大学学报（医学版）

上海交通大学学报（医学版） ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 69-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2019.01.013

• 论著·临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

老年多发肋骨骨折患者肺部并发症风险预测模型的建立

茅怡铭 1，吴长江 2   

  1. 1.上海交通大学医学院附属苏州九龙医院胸外科，苏州 215000；2.上海交通大学医学院附属苏州九龙医院重症医学科，苏州 215000
  • 出版日期:2019-01-28 发布日期:2019-02-27
  • 通讯作者: 吴长江，电子信箱：fancysuxing@163.com。
  • 作者简介:茅怡铭（1985—），男，主治医师，博士生；电子信箱：253992240@qq.com。

Establishment of risk prediction model for pulmonary complications in elderly patients with multiple rib fractures

MAO Yi-Ming1, WU Chang-Jiang2   

  1. 1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Suzhou Kowloon Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Suzhou 215000, China; 2. Department of Intensive Care Unit, Suzhou Kowloon Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Suzhou 215000, China
  • Online:2019-01-28 Published:2019-02-27

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摘要： 目的 ·构建老年多发肋骨骨折患者发生肺部并发症的风险预测模型。方法 ·回顾性分析 2016年 1月至 2017年 12月期间上海交通大学医学院附属苏州九龙医院胸外科收治的 150例老年多发肋骨骨折患者的资料。根据是否发生肺部并发症将患者分为病例组（n88）和对照组（ n62）。结合性别、年龄、肺部基础疾病、吸烟史、肋骨骨折根数、咳痰情况、糖尿病、就诊时间等 8项因素进行单因素分析及 Logistic回归分析。结果 ·单因素分析结果显示：年龄、肺部基础疾病、吸烟史、肋骨骨折根数、咳痰情况、糖尿病、就诊时间等因素与发生肺部并发症有关（ P<0.05）。Logistic回归分析结果显示：肺部基础疾病（ OR3.338，95% CI 2.772～ 11.606， P0.003）、吸烟史（ OR2.407，95% CI 1.103～ 5.253，P0.027）、肋骨骨折根数（ OR3.321，95% CI 1.178～ 9.359，P0.023）、咳痰情况（ OR4.034，95% CI 1.818～ 8.952，P0.001）是老年多发肋骨骨折患者发生肺部并发症的独立危险因素。构建模型的 ROC曲线下面积为 0.816，回归模型结果可靠。结论 ·肺部基础疾病、吸烟史、肋骨骨折根数、咳痰情况是老年多发肋骨骨折患者发生肺部并发症的独立危险因素，在临床上更应加以关注，以期减少肺部并发症的发生率。

关键词: 肋骨骨折, 肺部并发症, 老年患者

Abstract:

Objective · To establish a risk prediction model for pulmonary complications in elderly patients with multiple rib fractures. Methods · A total of 150 cases of elderly patients with multiple rib fractures were analyzed retrospectively January 2016 to December 2017 in the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Suzhou Kowloon Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine. Patients were divided into case group (n88) and control group (n62) according to whether pulmonary complications occurred. Univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were performed based on 8 factors, including gender, age, basic pulmonary disease, smoking history, the number of rib fractures, expectoration, diabetes, and the treatment time. Results · The results of univariate analysis showed that age, basic pulmonary disease, smoking history, the number of rib fractures, expectoration, diabetes, and the treatment time were associated with pulmonary complications (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that basic pulmonary disease (OR3.338, 95% CI 2.772-11.606, P0.003), smoking history (OR2.407, 95% CI 1.103-5.253, P0.027), the number of rib fractures (OR3.321, 95% CI 1.178-9.359, P0.023), and expectoration (OR4.034, 95% CI 1.818-8.952, P0.001) were the independent risk factors for pulmonary complications in elderly patients with multiple rib fractures. The area under the model ROC curve was 0.816, and the regression model was reliable. Conclusion · Basic pulmonary disease, smoking history, the number of rib fractures and expectoration are the independent risk factors for pulmonary complications in elderly patients with multiple rib fractures. More attention should be paid to these factors into reduce the incidence of pulmonary complications.

Key words: rib fracture, pulmonary complications, elderly patients

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