目的 针对外来孕产妇平产政策问题开展研究，以提高对外来孕产妇保健的管理能力。方法 以上海市嘉定区2004年起对外来孕产妇实行150元3次产检和24 h 800元顺产的平产政策为研究对象，在文献分析和专家访谈的基础上，采用系统动力学动态建模，对2004—2014年间的平产政策进行仿真实验。结果 系统动力学模型模拟出的2004—2008年外来孕产妇的人口增长与嘉定区卫生局提供的统计数据非常接近。对2004—2014年间的平产政策进行仿真实验显示：调整政府平产补贴，可逐步控制外来孕产妇数量为原有增长量的40%，并计算得到均衡点的平产补贴为170元人民币。结论 平产政策需要逐渐调整到均衡价，才能平衡平产医院的高压力和外来孕产妇的增长。

Objective To conduct a pilot research on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population, and explore the means to solve the health service dilemma. Methods The health care policy for pregnant women in floating population in Jiading District which included prenatal examination (three times, 150 RMB) and spontaneous labor (24 h, 800 RMB) was studied. Based on literature analysis and expert interview, system dynamic modeling was applied, and simulation on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population between 2004 and 2014 was conducted. Results The increase in number of pregnant women in floating population from 2004 to 2008 in Jiading District drawn by system dynamic modeling was in line with the data from Jiading District Health Bureau. Simulation on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population between 2004 and 2014 demonstrated that the number of pregnant women in floating population would decrease to 40% of natural population increase if the amount of subsidy was adjusted, and the balance subsidy was 170 RMB. Conclusion Balance subsidy in health care policy for pregnant women in floating population should be gradually reached for the sake of health service development and increase in number of pregnant women in floating population.