上海交通大学学报（医学版）

›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 340-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2013.03.018

• 论著（预防医学） • 上一篇    下一篇

1998—2009年重庆市结核病流行病学时空分布研究

周泽文1, 胡代玉2, 李 勤3, 马婧婧1, 王润华1, 易 静1   

  1. 1.重庆医科大学 公共卫生与管理学院统计学教研室, 重庆 400016； 2.重庆市结核病防治所, 重庆 400050； 3.重庆市疾病预防控制中心, 重庆 400042
  • 出版日期:2013-03-28 发布日期:2013-03-29
  • 通讯作者: 易 静, 电子信箱: yijinga@sina.com。
  • 作者简介:周泽文（1985—）, 男, 硕士生； 电子信箱: zhouzewen689@126.com。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(30872160)和重庆市科委自然科学基金（2009BB5415）

Temporal-spatial distribution study on tuberculosis epidemiology in Chongqing between 1998 and 2009

ZHOU Ze-wen1, HU Dai-yu2, LI Qin3, MA Jing-jing1, WANG Run-hua1, YI Jing1   

  1. 1.Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China； 2.Institute of Tuberculosis Prevention and Treatment of Chongqing, Chongqing 400050, China； 3.Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
  • Online:2013-03-28 Published:2013-03-29
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, 30872160；Chongqing Science and Technology Committee Foundation, 2009BB5415

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摘要：

目的 描述并分析1998—2009年重庆市结核病发病趋势及地区聚集性，为地区公共卫生决策提供科学依据。方法 收集重庆市40个区县1998—2009年的结核病发病资料及人口数据，采用线性回归和聚类分析描述其时空分布。结果 ①时间趋势：重庆市结核病发病率呈现一定范围的波动，从1998—2005年呈逐步上升趋势，2005年后趋于平缓。②空间聚集性：将重庆市各区县按发病率分为四类，其中彭水县、丰都县、忠县、涪陵区、巫山县、武隆县、渝中区、万州区的发病率最高。对各类进行方差分析，显示聚类效果良好（F=33.68，P<0.000 1）。结论 1998—2009年重庆市结核病疫情十分严峻，且发病情况受地域和经济水平影响较大，应加大对高发病率区域的财政投入和卫生资源分配比例。

关键词: 结核病, 时间趋势, 聚类分析, 时空分布

Abstract:

Objective To describe and analyze the tendency and spatial clustering of tuberculosis in Chongqing between 1998 and 2009, and provide scientific basis for regional public health decisionmaking. Methods The data on prevalences of tuberculosis and population in 40 districts and counties of Chongqing between 1998 and 2009 were collected, and linear regression and clustering analysis were used to describe the spatial and temporal patterns of tuberculosis. Results ① Time trend: The prevalences of tuberculosis in Chongqing exhibited a range of fluctuation, rising from 1998 to 2005, then steadying from 2005. ② Spatial clustering: All the districts and counties were divided into four categories according to the prevalences, and the areas with highest prevalences were Pengshui, Fengdu, Zhongxian, Fuling, Wushan, Wulong, Yuzhong and Wanzhou. One-way ANOVA demonstrated a good clustering effect (F=33.68, P<0.000 1). Conclusion Tuberculosis is still very grim in Chongqing, and the geographic location and economic levels have great impact on the prevalences. The government should increase the financial investment and improve the health resource allocation proportion at high-risk areas.

Key words: tuberculosis, time trend, clustering analysis, space-time analysis