›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 80-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2011.01.019

• 论著(预防医学) • 上一篇    下一篇

上海外来孕产妇平产政策困境研究

蔡雨阳1, 施莉莉2, 蒋雪琴1, Godfried Nortei Nortey2, Iman Sebtiu Mohammed2, 马 进1, Pl I. Davidsen2   

  1. 1.上海交通大学 公共卫生学院, 上海 200025;2.挪威卑尔根大学 系统动力学中心, 挪威N5020
  • 出版日期:2011-01-28 发布日期:2011-02-01
  • 通讯作者: 马 进, 电子信箱: majin_sph@sjtu.edu.cn; Pl I. Davidsen, 电子信箱: sinpd@uib.no。
  • 作者简介:蔡雨阳(1972—), 男, 副教授, 博士;电子信箱: caiyuyang@sjtu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:

    上海市教委重点科研项目(09ZS120)

Pilot research on health service dilemma for pregnant women in floating population in Shanghai

CAI Yu-yang1, SHI Li-li2, JIANG Xue-qin1,Godfried Nortei Nortey2, Iman Sebtiu Mohammed2, MA Jin1, Pl I. Davidsen2   

  1. 1.School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200025, China;2.System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen, NorwayN5020, Norway
  • Online:2011-01-28 Published:2011-02-01
  • Supported by:

    Major Fundamental Research Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Committee, 09ZS120

摘要:

目的 针对外来孕产妇平产政策问题开展研究,以提高对外来孕产妇保健的管理能力。方法 以上海市嘉定区2004年起对外来孕产妇实行150元3次产检和24 h 800元顺产的平产政策为研究对象,在文献分析和专家访谈的基础上,采用系统动力学动态建模,对2004—2014年间的平产政策进行仿真实验。结果 系统动力学模型模拟出的2004—2008年外来孕产妇的人口增长与嘉定区卫生局提供的统计数据非常接近。对2004—2014年间的平产政策进行仿真实验显示:调整政府平产补贴,可逐步控制外来孕产妇数量为原有增长量的40%,并计算得到均衡点的平产补贴为170元人民币。结论 平产政策需要逐渐调整到均衡价,才能平衡平产医院的高压力和外来孕产妇的增长。

关键词: 外来孕产妇, 动态建模, 政策仿真

Abstract:

Objective To conduct a pilot research on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population, and explore the means to solve the health service dilemma. Methods The health care policy for pregnant women in floating population in Jiading District which included prenatal examination (three times, 150 RMB) and spontaneous labor (24 h, 800 RMB) was studied. Based on literature analysis and expert interview, system dynamic modeling was applied, and simulation on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population between 2004 and 2014 was conducted. Results The increase in number of pregnant women in floating population from 2004 to 2008 in Jiading District drawn by system dynamic modeling was in line with the data from Jiading District Health Bureau. Simulation on health care policy for pregnant women in floating population between 2004 and 2014 demonstrated that the number of pregnant women in floating population would decrease to 40% of natural population increase if the amount of subsidy was adjusted, and the balance subsidy was 170 RMB. Conclusion Balance subsidy in health care policy for pregnant women in floating population should be gradually reached for the sake of health service development and increase in number of pregnant women in floating population.

Key words: pregnant women in floating population, dynamic modeling, policy simulation