上海交通大学学报（医学版）

›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 489-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2013.04.023

• 论著（预防医学） • 上一篇    下一篇

重庆市2008—2011年结核病疾病空间分布及影响因素分析

吴田勇1, 曾 庆1, 刘世炜2, 赵 寒3, 易 娟3, 李 勤3, 夏 宇3   

  1. 1.重庆医科大学 公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室, 重庆 400016； 2.中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102200； 3.重庆市疾病预防控制中心, 重庆 400042
  • 出版日期:2013-04-28 发布日期:2013-05-03
  • 通讯作者: 曾 庆, 电子信箱: zengqing1@gmail.com。
  • 作者简介:吴田勇（1987—）, 男, 硕士生； 电子信箱: wutianyong1987@gmail.com。
  • 基金资助:

    重庆市卫生局科技计划项目（2011-2-583）

Analysis of spatial distribution and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011

WU Tian-yong1, ZENG Qing1, LIU Shi-wei2, ZHAO Han3, YI Juan3, LI Qin3, XIA Yu3   

  1. 1.Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China； 2.Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102200, China； 3.Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
  • Online:2013-04-28 Published:2013-05-03
  • Supported by:

    Science and Technology Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, 2011-2-583

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摘要：

目的 应用空间自相关分析以及空间回归模型研究重庆市结核病的疾病空间分布特征及影响因素。方法 收集2008年1月—2011年12月重庆市40个区（县）的结核病相关信息和数据，采用GeoDa_0.9.5.i软件进行空间自相关分析和空间回归分析。结果 2008—2011年重庆市结核病年发病率全局Moran´sⅠ值分别为0.310、0.399、0.327和0.306，提示各年份重庆市结核病发病率具有空间正相关性；在空间回归分析中，城镇失业率与重庆市结核病发病相关（Z=2.150, P=0.032）。结论 2008—2011年重庆市结核病的空间分布为非随机分布，存在着明显的聚集区域；在空间层面上，城镇失业率为重庆市结核病发病的影响因素。

关键词: 结核病, 疾病空间分布, Moran´sⅠ检验, 空间自相关, 空间回归模型

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and influencing factors of tuberculosis in Chongqing using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial autoregressive model. Methods The data on tuberculosis of 40 districts (counties) in Chongqing from December 2008 December to 2011 were collected, and spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regressive analysis were performed using GeoDa_0.9.5.i software. Results The global Moran´sⅠ values of tuberculosis in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011 were 0.310, 0.399, 0.327, and 0.306, respectively, which indicated that there was a spatial positive correlation among each year in the incidences of tuberculosis in Chongqing. Spatial regressive analysis revealed that the incidence of tuberculosis in Chongqing was associated with the unemployment rate of urban area (Z=2.150, P=0.032). Conclusion The spatial clusterings of tuberculosis are found in Chongqing from 2008 to 2011, and the incidence of tuberculosis in Chongqing is associated with the unemployment rate of urban area at the spatial level.

Key words: tuberculosis, spatial distribution of disease, Moran´sⅠtest, spatial autocorrelation, spatial autoregressive model