›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 204-.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2013.02.016

• Original article (Preventive medicine) • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Hepatitis B prediction model based on Google trends

YANG Yan-hong1, ZENG Qing1, ZHAO Han2, YI Juan2, LI Qin2, XIA Yu2   

  1. 1.Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China； 2.Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
  • Online:2013-02-28 Published:2013-03-07
  • Supported by:

    Science and Technology Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Health Bureau, 2011-2-583

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Abstract:

Objective To investigate the feasibility to predict hepatitis B with the state space model in combination of Google trends. Methods SAS 9.13 software was used for data analysis and modeling. The state space model was established with the data of actual incidence of hepatitis B in Chongqing and those from Google trends between January 2, 2005 and December 26, 2010, and the data of actual incidence of hepatitis B between January 2, 2011 and June 19, 2011 was used for model validation. Results The state space model in combination with Google trends was useful to predict the prevalence of hepatitis B in Chongqing. The mean relative error for predictive value and actual value was 7.44%, which indicated a favorable prediction result. Conclusion It is feasible to predict hepatitis B in combination with data from network based searching.

Key words: Google trends, state space model, prediction, hepatitis B