基于GBD数据的中国儿童阑尾炎疾病负担分析及趋势预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2026.08.013

上海交通大学学报（医学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 1124-1133.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2026.08.013

• 论著 · 公共卫生 • 上一篇

基于GBD数据的中国儿童阑尾炎疾病负担分析及趋势预测

陈达伟¹^,²^,³, 孙明明¹^,²^,³()

^1.东南大学医学院附属江阴医院，江阴 214400
^2.江苏大学江阴临床医学院，江阴 214400
^3.南通大学附属江阴医院，江阴 214400

收稿日期:2026-02-24 接受日期:2026-04-14 出版日期:2026-08-28 发布日期:2026-08-28
通讯作者: 孙明明，主治医师，博士；电子信箱：sunmm@jyrmyy.com。
作者简介:第一联系人：陈达伟和孙明明参与研究设计、数据提取、数据分析以及论文的写作。孙明明负责课题指导及文章的审阅和修改。2位作者均阅读并同意最终稿件的提交。
基金资助:
无锡市“双百”中青年医疗卫生拔尖人才(BJ2023102)

Analysis of disease burden and trend prediction of pediatric appendicitis in China based on GBD data

Chen Dawei¹^,²^,³, Sun Mingming¹^,²^,³()

^1.Jiangyin Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Southeast University, Jiangyin 214400, China
^2.Jiangyin Clinical Medical College of Jiangsu University, Jiangyin 214400, China
^3.Jiangyin Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University, Jiangyin 214400, China

Received:2026-02-24 Accepted:2026-04-14 Online:2026-08-28 Published:2026-08-28
Contact: Sun Mingming, E-mail: sunmm@jyrmyy.com.
About author:First author contact:Chen Dawei and Sun Mingming participated in the research design, data extraction, data analysis, and manuscript writing. Sun Mingming was responsible for project guidance, and for reviewing and revising the manuscript. Both authors have read the final version of the paper and consented to its submission.
Supported by:
Young and Middle-aged Top-notch Medical and Health Talents under the Wuxi “Double Hundred” Program(BJ2023102)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的·系统评估1990—2023年中国儿童阑尾炎疾病负担的变化趋势，解析负担变化的驱动因素，并预测2024—2050年的疾病负担趋势。方法·基于“全球疾病负担研究2023”（Global Burden of Disease Study 2023，GBD 2023）数据，提取中国0~14岁儿童阑尾炎的发病情况、死亡情况及伤残调整生命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）等资料。采用年龄标准化指标评价疾病负担水平，使用年估计变化百分比（estimated annual percentage change，EAPC）评估时间趋势，并探讨性别和年龄差异特征。通过Das Gupta分解方法量化人口增长、人口年龄结构、流行病学因素对疾病负担变化的独立贡献。采用贝叶斯年龄‒时期‒队列（Bayesian age-period-cohort，BAPC）模型预测2024—2050年主要指标变化趋势。结果·1990—2023年，中国儿童阑尾炎发病数从260 374（95% UI 166 444~396 374）例降至187 216（95% UI 118 429~289 624）例，年龄标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）小幅下降（EAPC=-0.72%）。死亡数从285（95% UI 116~464）例降至36（95% UI 20~60）例，DALYs从26 708（95% UI 13 092~41 742）降至5 124（95% UI 3 417~7 345），年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）和年龄标准化DALYs率（age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate，ASDR）下降显著（EAPC分别为-6.48%和-4.88%）。10~14岁儿童ASIR最高，10岁以下儿童ASMR相对较高。男童ASIR均高于女童；其ASMR在2009年前低于女童，此后反超；其ASDR在2006年前低于女童，之后也转为高于女童。分解分析结果显示，发病负担下降由人口增长和流行病学变化所驱动，死亡与伤残负担下降主要由流行病学改善驱动。BAPC模型预测，2024—2050年ASIR、ASMR与ASDR将持续下降，但2045年后可能出现小幅回升。结论·1990—2023年中国儿童阑尾炎死亡与残疾负担明显减轻，但发病负担下降幅度相对有限，不同年龄及性别的疾病负担存在差异，且未来疾病负担有小幅上升的可能。

关键词: 儿童, 阑尾炎, 疾病负担, 伤残调整生命年, 趋势预测

Abstract:

Objective ·To systematically evaluate the changing trends of appendicitis disease burden among the children in China from 1990 to 2023, analyze the driving factors underlying burden changes, and predict the disease burden trends from 2024 to 2050. Methods ·Based on the data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), indicators including incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of appendicitis in Chinese children aged 0‒14 years were extracted. Age-standardized indicators were adopted to assess the level of disease burden; the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to evaluate temporal trends, and differences by gender and age were explored were explored. The Das Gupta decomposition method was applied to quantify the independent contributions of population growth, population age structure, and epidemiological factors to changes in disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the trends of core indicators from 2024 to 2050. Results ·From 1990 to 2023, the number of incident appendicitis cases among Chinese children decreased from 260 374 (95% UI 166 444‒396 374) to 187 216 (95% UI 118 429‒289 624), with a slight decline in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (EAPC=-0.72%). The number of deaths fell from 285 (95% UI 116‒464) to 36 (95% UI 20‒60), and DALYs dropped from 26 708 (95% UI 13 092‒41 742) to 5 124 (95% UI 3 417‒7 345). The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased significantly, with EAPCs of -6.48% and -4.88%, respectively. The ASIR was highest among children aged 10‒14 years, while the ASMR was relatively higher among children under 10 years old. The ASIR was consistently higher in boys than in girls. The ASMR in boys was lower than that in girls before 2009 but exceeded that in girls thereafter; similarly, the ASDR in boys was lower than that in girls before 2006 but became higher thereafter. Decomposition analysis showed that the decline in incidence burden was driven by population growth and epidemiological changes, while the reductions in mortality and disability burden were mainly driven by epidemiological improvements. The BAPC model predicted that the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR would continue to decline from 2024 to 2050, but a slight rebound might occur after 2045. Conclusion ·Between 1990 and 2023, the mortality and disability burden of appendicitis among Chinese children was significantly reduced, whereas the decline in incidence burden was relatively limited. Differences in disease burden existed across age groups and genders, and the overall disease burden may rise slightly in the future.

Key words: child, appendicitis, disease burden, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), trend prediction

中图分类号:

R179

陈达伟, 孙明明. 基于GBD数据的中国儿童阑尾炎疾病负担分析及趋势预测[J]. 上海交通大学学报（医学版）, 2026, 46(8): 1124-1133.

Chen Dawei, Sun Mingming. Analysis of disease burden and trend prediction of pediatric appendicitis in China based on GBD data[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Medical Science), 2026,(8): 1124-1133.

图/表 9

表1 1990年和2023年中国儿童阑尾炎发病情况及变化趋势

Tab 1 Incidence and trends of pediatric appendicitis in China between 1990 and 2023

Gender	1990		2023		EAPC (95% CI)/%
Gender	Case (95% UI)/n	ASIR (95% UI)/×10^-5	Case (95% UI)/n	ASIR (95% UI)/×10^-5	EAPC (95% CI)/%
Total	260 374 (166 444‒396 374)	82.86 (47.95‒133.51)	187 216 (118 429‒289 624)	69.46 (40.06‒112.20)	-0.72 (-0.83‒ -0.61)
Male	149 510 (95 813‒226 402)	91.74 (53.81‒147.16)	109 080 (69 530‒167 909)	76.11 (43.89‒122.95)	-0.70 (-0.87‒ -0.54)
Female	110 864 (70 221‒170 143)	73.28 (41.56‒119.91)	78 136 (48 907‒121 714)	61.91 (35.83‒101.23)	-0.77 (-0.86‒ -0.69)

图1 1990—2023年中国儿童阑尾炎的发病（A）、死亡（B）和DALYs（C）情况

Fig 1 Incidence (A), mortality (B), and DALYs (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children from 1990 to 2023

图2 2023年不同年龄段、不同性别中国儿童阑尾炎的发病（A）、死亡（B）和DALYs（C）情况

Fig 2 Incidence (A), mortality (B), and DALYs (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children in 2023, by age and gender group

图3 1990—2023年不同年龄段中国儿童阑尾炎的ASIR（A）、ASMR（B）和ASDR（C）情况

Fig 3 ASIR (A), ASMR (B), and ASDR (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children from 1990 to 2023, by age group

表2 1990年和2023年中国儿童阑尾炎死亡情况及变化趋势

Tab 2 Mortality and trends of pediatric appendicitis in China in 1990 and 2023

Gender	1990		2023		EAPC (95% CI)/%
Gender	Case (95% UI)/n	ASMR (95% UI)/×10^-5	Case (95% UI)/n	ASMR (95% UI)/×10^-5	EAPC (95% CI)/%
Total	285 (116‒464)	0.09 (0.04‒0.15)	36 (20‒60)	0.01 (0.01‒0.02)	-6.48 (-7.04‒ -5.91)
Male	133 (24‒234)	0.08 (0.01‒0.15)	20 (9‒41)	0.01 (0.01‒0.03)	-5.49 (-6.01‒ -4.96)
Female	152 (35‒334)	0.10 (0.02‒0.22)	16 (7‒37)	0.01 (0.01‒0.03)	-6.93 (-7.50‒ -6.36)

表3 1990年和2023年中国儿童阑尾炎DALYs情况及变化趋势

Tab 3 DALYs and trends of pediatric appendicitis in China in 1990 and 2023

Gender	1990		2023		EAPC (95% CI)/%
Gender	DALYs (95% UI)	ASDR (95% UI)/×10^-5	DALYs (95% UI)	ASDR (95% UI)/×10^-5	EAPC (95% CI)/%
Total	26 708 (13 092‒41 742)	8.40 (3.97‒13.81)	5 124 (3 417‒7 345)	1.97 (1.24‒2.99)	-4.88 (-5.16‒ -4.60)
Male	12 808 (3 671‒21 085)	7.74 (2.26‒13.21)	2 927 (1 744‒4 617)	2.10 (1.18‒3.56)	-4.35 (-4.62‒ -4.08)
Female	13 900 (4 174‒29 004)	9.13 (2.62‒18.7)	2 198 (1 346‒3 828)	1.82 (1.03‒3.31)	-5.49 (-5.80‒ -5.18)

图4 1990—2023年中国儿童阑尾炎发病（A）、死亡（B）和DALYs（C）变化的分解分析

Fig 4 Decomposition analysis of changes in incidence (A), mortality (B), and DALYs (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children from 1990 to 2023

图5 1990—2050年中国儿童阑尾炎ASIR（A）、ASMR（B）和ASDR（C）变化趋势

Fig 5 Trends in ASIR (A), ASMR (B), and ASDR (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children from 1990 to 2050

图6 1990—2050年不同年龄段中国儿童阑尾炎ASIR（A）、ASMR（B）和ASDR（C）变化趋势

Fig 6 Trends in ASIR (A), ASMR (B), and ASDR (C) of pediatric appendicitis among Chinese children from 1990 to 2050 by age group

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基于GBD数据的中国儿童阑尾炎疾病负担分析及趋势预测

Analysis of disease burden and trend prediction of pediatric appendicitis in China based on GBD data

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