上海交通大学学报(医学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 320-332.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-8115.2023.03.008
• 论著 · 循证医学 • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2022-08-18
接受日期:
2022-12-09
出版日期:
2023-03-28
发布日期:
2023-03-28
通讯作者:
刘宁宁
E-mail:wanganjun@sjtu.edu.cn;liuningning@shsmu.edu.cn
作者简介:
王安君(1994—),女,硕士生;电子信箱:wanganjun@sjtu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
Received:
2022-08-18
Accepted:
2022-12-09
Online:
2023-03-28
Published:
2023-03-28
Contact:
LIU Ningning
E-mail:wanganjun@sjtu.edu.cn;liuningning@shsmu.edu.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
目的·利用美国癌症监测、流行病学和结果(Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results,SEER)数据库评估新辅助放射治疗(放疗)和辅助放疗对行化学治疗(化疗)和手术的直肠癌患者生存的影响。方法·纳入SEER数据库2005—2015年经病理确诊为直肠癌,并接受化疗和手术治疗的患者;排除尸检或仅死亡证明为直肠癌、无随访时间和临床资料不全的患者。将所有患者分为新辅助放疗联合手术组(RT+S组)、手术治疗组(S组)和手术联合辅助放疗组(S+RT组)。采用倾向性评分匹配(propensity score matching,PSM)以1∶1的比例匹配各组纳入对象,采用受限平均生存时间(restricted mean survival time,RMST)估计直肠癌患者5年和10年内平均生存期,采用Cox比例风险模型确定新辅助放疗和辅助放疗对直肠癌患者总生存期(overall survival,OS)和肿瘤特异性生存期(cancer specific survival,CSS)的影响,通过对患者进行分层分析确定新辅助放疗和辅助放疗的具体获益人群。结果·2005—2015年,共纳入8 975例接受化疗和手术的直肠癌患者;其中S组1 079例,RT+S组5 991例,S+RT组1 905例。经PSM后,各组临床基础特征均衡可比。PSM后,与S组相比,RT+S组患者5年和10年的预后均显著改善(均P=0.000),而S+RT组患者仅5年预后显著改善(均P<0.05),10年预后改善不明显(均P>0.05)。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,新辅助放疗是患者OS和CSS的独立保护因素(均P=0.000),而辅助放疗并不是(均P>0.05)。亚组分析显示:新辅助放疗对于年龄<50岁、肿瘤分化程度高、肿瘤直径≤30 mm或TNM分期Ⅰ~Ⅲ期患者OS和CSS没有明显的保护作用(均P>0.05);而辅助放疗对于肿瘤低分化/未分化、肿瘤直径>50 mm或TNM分期Ⅳ期的患者OS和CSS有明显的保护作用(均P<0.05)。结论·对于行化疗和手术的直肠癌患者,新辅助放疗有明显的生存获益,但可能不适用于年龄<50岁、肿瘤分化程度高、肿瘤直径≤30 mm或TNM分期Ⅰ~Ⅲ期的患者;而肿瘤低分化/未分化、肿瘤直径>50 mm或TNM分期Ⅳ期的患者可能从辅助放疗中获益。
中图分类号:
王安君, 刘宁宁. 放疗对行化疗和手术的直肠癌患者的效果分析:一项基于SEER数据库的回顾性研究[J]. 上海交通大学学报(医学版), 2023, 43(3): 320-332.
WANG Anjun, LIU Ningning. Efficacy of radiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy and surgery: a retrospective study based on the SEER database[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Medical Science), 2023, 43(3): 320-332.
Characteristic | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (n=7 070) | S group (n=1 079) | RT+S group (n=5 991) | P value | All (n=1 906) | S group (n=953) | RT+S group (n=953) | P value | |
Age/n (%) | 0.024 | 0.999 | ||||||
<50 years | 1 606 (22.7) | 216 (20.0) | 1 390 (23.2) | 371 (19.5) | 185 (19.4) | 186 (19.5) | ||
≥50 years | 5 464 (77.3) | 863 (80.0) | 4 601 (76.8) | 1 535 (80.5) | 768 (80.6) | 767 (80.5) | ||
Gender/n (%) | 0.049 | 0.999 | ||||||
Male | 4 412 (62.4) | 644 (59.7) | 3 768 (62.9) | 1 129 (59.2) | 564 (59.2) | 565 (59.3) | ||
Female | 2 658 (37.6) | 435 (40.3) | 2 223 (37.1) | 777 (40.8) | 389 (40.8) | 388 (40.7) | ||
Race/n (%) | 0.063 | 0.294 | ||||||
White | 5 414 (76.6) | 818 (75.8) | 4 596 (76.7) | 1 416 (74.3) | 699 (73.3) | 717 (75.2) | ||
Black | 524 (7.4) | 98 (9.1) | 426 (7.1) | 165 (8.7) | 79 (8.3) | 86 (9.0) | ||
Others | 1 132 (16.0) | 163 (15.1) | 969 (16.2) | 325 (17.1) | 175 (18.4) | 150 (15.7) | ||
Marital status/n (%) | 0.681 | 0.541 | ||||||
Married | 4 183 (59.2) | 645 (59.8) | 3 538 (59.1) | 1 172 (61.5) | 593 (62.2) | 579 (60.8) | ||
Others | 2 887 (40.8) | 434 (40.2) | 2 453 (40.9) | 734 (38.5) | 360 (37.8) | 374 (39.2) | ||
Tumor histology/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.956 | ||||||
Adenocarcinoma | 5 734 (81.1) | 815 (75.5) | 4 919 (82.1) | 1 472 (77.2) | 737 (77.3) | 735 (77.1) | ||
Others | 1 336 (18.9) | 264 (24.5) | 1 072 (17.9) | 434 (22.8) | 216 (22.7) | 218 (22.9) | ||
Tumor size/n (%) | 0.010 | 0.999 | ||||||
≤30 mm | 1 586 (22.4) | 228 (21.1) | 1 358 (22.7) | 410 (21.5) | 205 (21.5) | 205 (21.5) | ||
>30‒50 mm | 3 312 (46.8) | 477 (44.2) | 2 835 (47.3) | 878 (46.1) | 439 (46.1) | 439 (46.1) | ||
>50 mm | 2 172 (30.7) | 374 (34.7) | 1 798 (30.0) | 618 (32.4) | 309 (32.4) | 309 (32.4) | ||
Histologic grade/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.970 | ||||||
Well differentiated | 445 (6.3) | 43 (4.0) | 402 (6.7) | 70 (3.7) | 34 (3.6) | 36 (3.8) | ||
Moderately differentiated | 5 549 (78.5) | 806 (74.7) | 4 743 (79.2) | 1 463 (76.8) | 732 (76.8) | 731 (76.7) | ||
Poorly differentiated/undifferentiated | 1 076 (15.2) | 230 (21.3) | 846 (14.1) | 373 (19.6) | 187 (19.6) | 186 (19.5) | ||
TNM stage/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
Ⅰ | 677 (9.6) | 50 (4.6) | 627 (10.5) | 93 (4.9) | 46 (4.8) | 47 (4.9) | ||
Ⅱ | 2 027 (28.7) | 144 (13.3) | 1 883 (31.4) | 288 (15.1) | 145 (15.2) | 143 (15.0) | ||
Ⅲ | 3 509 (49.6) | 480 (44.5) | 3 029 (50.6) | 947 (49.7) | 473 (49.6) | 474 (49.7) | ||
Ⅳ | 857 (12.1) | 405 (37.5) | 452 (7.5) | 578 (30.3) | 289 (30.3) | 289 (30.3) | ||
Regional nodes examined/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
<12 | 3 065 (43.4) | 411 (38.1) | 2 654 (44.3) | 734 (38.5) | 367 (38.5) | 367 (38.5) | ||
≥12 | 4 005 (56.6) | 668 (61.9) | 3 337 (55.7) | 1 172 (61.5) | 586 (61.5) | 586 (61.5) |
表1 PSM前后RT+S组和S组直肠癌患者的临床基本特征
Tab 1 Basic characteristics of rectal cancer patients in the RT+S group and the S group before and after PSM
Characteristic | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (n=7 070) | S group (n=1 079) | RT+S group (n=5 991) | P value | All (n=1 906) | S group (n=953) | RT+S group (n=953) | P value | |
Age/n (%) | 0.024 | 0.999 | ||||||
<50 years | 1 606 (22.7) | 216 (20.0) | 1 390 (23.2) | 371 (19.5) | 185 (19.4) | 186 (19.5) | ||
≥50 years | 5 464 (77.3) | 863 (80.0) | 4 601 (76.8) | 1 535 (80.5) | 768 (80.6) | 767 (80.5) | ||
Gender/n (%) | 0.049 | 0.999 | ||||||
Male | 4 412 (62.4) | 644 (59.7) | 3 768 (62.9) | 1 129 (59.2) | 564 (59.2) | 565 (59.3) | ||
Female | 2 658 (37.6) | 435 (40.3) | 2 223 (37.1) | 777 (40.8) | 389 (40.8) | 388 (40.7) | ||
Race/n (%) | 0.063 | 0.294 | ||||||
White | 5 414 (76.6) | 818 (75.8) | 4 596 (76.7) | 1 416 (74.3) | 699 (73.3) | 717 (75.2) | ||
Black | 524 (7.4) | 98 (9.1) | 426 (7.1) | 165 (8.7) | 79 (8.3) | 86 (9.0) | ||
Others | 1 132 (16.0) | 163 (15.1) | 969 (16.2) | 325 (17.1) | 175 (18.4) | 150 (15.7) | ||
Marital status/n (%) | 0.681 | 0.541 | ||||||
Married | 4 183 (59.2) | 645 (59.8) | 3 538 (59.1) | 1 172 (61.5) | 593 (62.2) | 579 (60.8) | ||
Others | 2 887 (40.8) | 434 (40.2) | 2 453 (40.9) | 734 (38.5) | 360 (37.8) | 374 (39.2) | ||
Tumor histology/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.956 | ||||||
Adenocarcinoma | 5 734 (81.1) | 815 (75.5) | 4 919 (82.1) | 1 472 (77.2) | 737 (77.3) | 735 (77.1) | ||
Others | 1 336 (18.9) | 264 (24.5) | 1 072 (17.9) | 434 (22.8) | 216 (22.7) | 218 (22.9) | ||
Tumor size/n (%) | 0.010 | 0.999 | ||||||
≤30 mm | 1 586 (22.4) | 228 (21.1) | 1 358 (22.7) | 410 (21.5) | 205 (21.5) | 205 (21.5) | ||
>30‒50 mm | 3 312 (46.8) | 477 (44.2) | 2 835 (47.3) | 878 (46.1) | 439 (46.1) | 439 (46.1) | ||
>50 mm | 2 172 (30.7) | 374 (34.7) | 1 798 (30.0) | 618 (32.4) | 309 (32.4) | 309 (32.4) | ||
Histologic grade/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.970 | ||||||
Well differentiated | 445 (6.3) | 43 (4.0) | 402 (6.7) | 70 (3.7) | 34 (3.6) | 36 (3.8) | ||
Moderately differentiated | 5 549 (78.5) | 806 (74.7) | 4 743 (79.2) | 1 463 (76.8) | 732 (76.8) | 731 (76.7) | ||
Poorly differentiated/undifferentiated | 1 076 (15.2) | 230 (21.3) | 846 (14.1) | 373 (19.6) | 187 (19.6) | 186 (19.5) | ||
TNM stage/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
Ⅰ | 677 (9.6) | 50 (4.6) | 627 (10.5) | 93 (4.9) | 46 (4.8) | 47 (4.9) | ||
Ⅱ | 2 027 (28.7) | 144 (13.3) | 1 883 (31.4) | 288 (15.1) | 145 (15.2) | 143 (15.0) | ||
Ⅲ | 3 509 (49.6) | 480 (44.5) | 3 029 (50.6) | 947 (49.7) | 473 (49.6) | 474 (49.7) | ||
Ⅳ | 857 (12.1) | 405 (37.5) | 452 (7.5) | 578 (30.3) | 289 (30.3) | 289 (30.3) | ||
Regional nodes examined/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
<12 | 3 065 (43.4) | 411 (38.1) | 2 654 (44.3) | 734 (38.5) | 367 (38.5) | 367 (38.5) | ||
≥12 | 4 005 (56.6) | 668 (61.9) | 3 337 (55.7) | 1 172 (61.5) | 586 (61.5) | 586 (61.5) |
Characteristic | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (n=2 984) | S group (n=1 079) | S+RT group (n=1 905) | P value | All (n=1 478) | S group (n=739) | S+RT group (n=739) | P value | |
Age/n (%) | 0.344 | 0.842 | ||||||
<50 years | 569 (19.1) | 216 (20.0) | 353 (18.5) | 278 (18.8) | 137 (18.5) | 141 (19.1) | ||
≥50 years | 2 415 (80.9) | 863 (80.0) | 1 552 (81.5) | 1 200 (81.2) | 602 (81.5) | 598 (80.9) | ||
Gender/n (%) | 0.473 | 0.874 | ||||||
Male | 1 754 (58.8) | 644 (59.7) | 1 110 (58.3) | 862 (58.3) | 429 (58.1) | 433 (58.6) | ||
Female | 1 230 (41.2) | 435 (40.3) | 795 (41.7) | 616 (41.7) | 310 (41.9) | 306 (41.4) | ||
Race/n (%) | 0.531 | 0.231 | ||||||
White | 2 274 (76.2) | 818 (75.8) | 1 456 (76.4) | 1 120 (75.8) | 550 (74.4) | 570 (77.1) | ||
Black | 249 (8.3) | 98 (9.1) | 151 (7.9) | 122 (8.3) | 59 (8.0) | 63 (8.5) | ||
Others | 461 (15.4) | 163 (15.1) | 298 (15.6) | 236 (16.0) | 130 (17.6) | 106 (14.3) | ||
Marital status/n (%) | 0.655 | 0.264 | ||||||
Married | 1 801 (60.4) | 645 (59.8) | 1 156 (60.7) | 892 (60.4) | 435 (58.9) | 457 (61.8) | ||
Others | 1 183 (39.6) | 434 (40.2) | 749 (39.3) | 586 (39.6) | 304 (41.1) | 282 (38.2) | ||
Tumor histology/n (%) | 0.012 | 0.859 | ||||||
Adenocarcinoma | 2 171 (72.8) | 815 (75.5) | 1 356 (71.2) | 1 092 (73.9) | 544 (73.6) | 548 (74.2) | ||
Others | 813 (27.2) | 264 (24.5) | 549 (28.8) | 386 (26.1) | 195 (26.4) | 191 (25.8) | ||
Tumor size/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.970 | ||||||
≤30 mm | 792 (26.5) | 228 (21.1) | 564 (29.6) | 370 (25.0) | 185 (25.0) | 185 (25.0) | ||
>30‒50 mm | 1 295 (43.4) | 477 (44.2) | 818 (42.9) | 670 (45.3) | 333 (45.1) | 337 (45.6) | ||
>50 mm | 897 (30.1) | 374 (34.7) | 523 (27.5) | 438 (29.6) | 221 (29.9) | 217 (29.4) | ||
Histologic grade/n (%) | 0.008 | 0.999 | ||||||
Well differentiated | 154 (5.2) | 43 (4.0) | 111 (5.8) | 54 (3.7) | 27 (3.7) | 27 (3.7) | ||
Moderately differentiated | 2 263 (75.8) | 806 (74.7) | 1 457 (76.5) | 1 154 (78.1) | 577 (78.1) | 577 (78.1) | ||
Poorly differentiated/undifferentiated | 567 (19.0) | 230 (21.3) | 337 (17.7) | 270 (18.3) | 135 (18.3) | 135 (18.3) | ||
TNM stage/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
Ⅰ | 309 (10.4) | 50 (4.6) | 259 (13.6) | 82 (5.6) | 41 (5.6) | 41 (5.6) | ||
Ⅱ | 618 (20.7) | 144 (13.3) | 474 (24.9) | 266 (18.0) | 133 (18.0) | 133 (18.0) | ||
Ⅲ | 1 533 (51.4) | 480 (44.5) | 1 053 (55.3) | 922 (62.4) | 461 (62.4) | 461 (62.4) | ||
Ⅳ | 524 (17.6) | 405 (37.5) | 119 (6.3) | 208 (14.1) | 104 (14.1) | 104 (14.1) | ||
Regional nodes examined/n (%) | 0.799 | 0.999 | ||||||
<12 | 1 147 (38.4) | 411 (38.1) | 736 (38.6) | 522 (35.3) | 261 (35.3) | 261 (35.3) | ||
≥12 | 1 837 (61.6) | 668 (61.9) | 1 169 (61.4) | 956 (64.7) | 478 (64.7) | 478 (64.7) |
表2 PSM前后S组和S+RT组直肠癌患者的临床基本特征
Tab 2 Basic characteristics of rectal cancer patients in the S group and the S+RT group before and after PSM
Characteristic | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All (n=2 984) | S group (n=1 079) | S+RT group (n=1 905) | P value | All (n=1 478) | S group (n=739) | S+RT group (n=739) | P value | |
Age/n (%) | 0.344 | 0.842 | ||||||
<50 years | 569 (19.1) | 216 (20.0) | 353 (18.5) | 278 (18.8) | 137 (18.5) | 141 (19.1) | ||
≥50 years | 2 415 (80.9) | 863 (80.0) | 1 552 (81.5) | 1 200 (81.2) | 602 (81.5) | 598 (80.9) | ||
Gender/n (%) | 0.473 | 0.874 | ||||||
Male | 1 754 (58.8) | 644 (59.7) | 1 110 (58.3) | 862 (58.3) | 429 (58.1) | 433 (58.6) | ||
Female | 1 230 (41.2) | 435 (40.3) | 795 (41.7) | 616 (41.7) | 310 (41.9) | 306 (41.4) | ||
Race/n (%) | 0.531 | 0.231 | ||||||
White | 2 274 (76.2) | 818 (75.8) | 1 456 (76.4) | 1 120 (75.8) | 550 (74.4) | 570 (77.1) | ||
Black | 249 (8.3) | 98 (9.1) | 151 (7.9) | 122 (8.3) | 59 (8.0) | 63 (8.5) | ||
Others | 461 (15.4) | 163 (15.1) | 298 (15.6) | 236 (16.0) | 130 (17.6) | 106 (14.3) | ||
Marital status/n (%) | 0.655 | 0.264 | ||||||
Married | 1 801 (60.4) | 645 (59.8) | 1 156 (60.7) | 892 (60.4) | 435 (58.9) | 457 (61.8) | ||
Others | 1 183 (39.6) | 434 (40.2) | 749 (39.3) | 586 (39.6) | 304 (41.1) | 282 (38.2) | ||
Tumor histology/n (%) | 0.012 | 0.859 | ||||||
Adenocarcinoma | 2 171 (72.8) | 815 (75.5) | 1 356 (71.2) | 1 092 (73.9) | 544 (73.6) | 548 (74.2) | ||
Others | 813 (27.2) | 264 (24.5) | 549 (28.8) | 386 (26.1) | 195 (26.4) | 191 (25.8) | ||
Tumor size/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.970 | ||||||
≤30 mm | 792 (26.5) | 228 (21.1) | 564 (29.6) | 370 (25.0) | 185 (25.0) | 185 (25.0) | ||
>30‒50 mm | 1 295 (43.4) | 477 (44.2) | 818 (42.9) | 670 (45.3) | 333 (45.1) | 337 (45.6) | ||
>50 mm | 897 (30.1) | 374 (34.7) | 523 (27.5) | 438 (29.6) | 221 (29.9) | 217 (29.4) | ||
Histologic grade/n (%) | 0.008 | 0.999 | ||||||
Well differentiated | 154 (5.2) | 43 (4.0) | 111 (5.8) | 54 (3.7) | 27 (3.7) | 27 (3.7) | ||
Moderately differentiated | 2 263 (75.8) | 806 (74.7) | 1 457 (76.5) | 1 154 (78.1) | 577 (78.1) | 577 (78.1) | ||
Poorly differentiated/undifferentiated | 567 (19.0) | 230 (21.3) | 337 (17.7) | 270 (18.3) | 135 (18.3) | 135 (18.3) | ||
TNM stage/n (%) | 0.000 | 0.999 | ||||||
Ⅰ | 309 (10.4) | 50 (4.6) | 259 (13.6) | 82 (5.6) | 41 (5.6) | 41 (5.6) | ||
Ⅱ | 618 (20.7) | 144 (13.3) | 474 (24.9) | 266 (18.0) | 133 (18.0) | 133 (18.0) | ||
Ⅲ | 1 533 (51.4) | 480 (44.5) | 1 053 (55.3) | 922 (62.4) | 461 (62.4) | 461 (62.4) | ||
Ⅳ | 524 (17.6) | 405 (37.5) | 119 (6.3) | 208 (14.1) | 104 (14.1) | 104 (14.1) | ||
Regional nodes examined/n (%) | 0.799 | 0.999 | ||||||
<12 | 1 147 (38.4) | 411 (38.1) | 736 (38.6) | 522 (35.3) | 261 (35.3) | 261 (35.3) | ||
≥12 | 1 837 (61.6) | 668 (61.9) | 1 169 (61.4) | 956 (64.7) | 478 (64.7) | 478 (64.7) |
图2 2005—2015年接受化疗和手术的3组直肠癌患者的比例变化趋势
Fig 2 Trends in the proportions of rectal cancer patients in three groups receiving chemotherapy from 2005 to 2015
Test model | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RT+S group (95%CI) | S group (95%CI) | P value | RT+S group (95%CI) | S group (95%CI) | P value | |
Log-rank | ||||||
Median OS/month | 149 (142‒155) | 62 (55‒72) | ‒ | 104 (93‒123) | 71 (61‒86) | ‒ |
Median CSS/month | NA | 79 (66‒107) | ‒ | NA | 107 (81‒142) | ‒ |
RMST | ||||||
60 months (5 years) survival time | 52.9 (52.5‒53.3) | 44.2 (43.0‒45.3) | 0.000 | 49.8 (48.8‒50.8) | 45.4 (44.2‒46.6) | 0.000 |
60 months (5 years) cancer specific survival time | 54.1 (53.8‒54.5) | 45.9 (44.8‒47.0) | 0.000 | 50.8 (49.8‒51.8) | 47.3 (46.1‒48.5) | 0.000 |
120 months (10 years) survival time | 91.7 (90.6‒92.7) | 70.1 (67.3‒72.8) | 0.000 | 82.1 (79.4‒84.9) | 73.2 (70.2‒76.1) | 0.000 |
120 months (10 years) cancer specific survival time | 97.4 (96.4‒98.4) | 75.2 (72.4‒78.1) | 0.000 | 87.1 (84.4‒89.9) | 78.7 (75.7‒81.8) | 0.000 |
表3 RT+S组和S组直肠癌患者OS和CSS比较
Tab 3 Comparison of OS and CSS in the patients with rectal cancer between the RT+S group and the S group
Test model | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RT+S group (95%CI) | S group (95%CI) | P value | RT+S group (95%CI) | S group (95%CI) | P value | |
Log-rank | ||||||
Median OS/month | 149 (142‒155) | 62 (55‒72) | ‒ | 104 (93‒123) | 71 (61‒86) | ‒ |
Median CSS/month | NA | 79 (66‒107) | ‒ | NA | 107 (81‒142) | ‒ |
RMST | ||||||
60 months (5 years) survival time | 52.9 (52.5‒53.3) | 44.2 (43.0‒45.3) | 0.000 | 49.8 (48.8‒50.8) | 45.4 (44.2‒46.6) | 0.000 |
60 months (5 years) cancer specific survival time | 54.1 (53.8‒54.5) | 45.9 (44.8‒47.0) | 0.000 | 50.8 (49.8‒51.8) | 47.3 (46.1‒48.5) | 0.000 |
120 months (10 years) survival time | 91.7 (90.6‒92.7) | 70.1 (67.3‒72.8) | 0.000 | 82.1 (79.4‒84.9) | 73.2 (70.2‒76.1) | 0.000 |
120 months (10 years) cancer specific survival time | 97.4 (96.4‒98.4) | 75.2 (72.4‒78.1) | 0.000 | 87.1 (84.4‒89.9) | 78.7 (75.7‒81.8) | 0.000 |
图3 PSM前后RT+S组和S组的生存曲线Note: A. Survival curves of OS of the RT+S group and the S group before PSM. B. Survival curves of OS of the RT+S group and the S group after PSM. C. Survival curves of CSS of the RT+S group and the S group before PSM. D. Survival curves of CSS of the RT+S group and the S group after PSM.
Fig 3 Survival curves of the RT+S group and the S group before and after PSM
Test model | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S group (95%CI) | S+RT group (95%CI) | P value | S group (95%CI) | S+RT group (95%CI) | P value | |
Log-rank | ||||||
Median OS/month | 62 (55‒72) | 142 (129‒155) | ‒ | 106 (88‒129) | 116 (98‒132) | ‒ |
Median CSS/month | 79 (66‒107) | NA | ‒ | NA | NA | ‒ |
RMST | ||||||
60 months (5 years) survival time | 44.2 (43.0‒45.3) | 52.2 (51.5‒52.9) | 0.000 | 48.0 (46.7‒49.4) | 50.6 (49.4‒51.7) | 0.005 |
60 months (5 years) cancer specific survival time | 45.9 (44.8‒47.0) | 53.8 (53.2‒54.5) | 0.000 | 49.9 (48.7‒51.2) | 51.7 (50.6‒52.9) | 0.033 |
120 months (10 years) survival time | 70.1 (67.3‒72.8) | 90.3 (88.5‒92.1) | 0.000 | 80.3 (77.0‒83.6) | 84.6 (81.5‒87.6) | 0.065 |
120 months (10 years) cancer specific survival time | 75.2 (72.4‒78.1) | 96.6 (94.8‒98.3) | 0.000 | 86.3 (83.0‒89.6) | 89.6 (86.6‒92.7) | 0.147 |
表4 S组和S+RT组直肠癌患者OS和CSS比较
Tab 4 Comparison of OS and CSS in the patients with rectal cancer between the S group and the S+RT group
Test model | Before PSM | After PSM | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S group (95%CI) | S+RT group (95%CI) | P value | S group (95%CI) | S+RT group (95%CI) | P value | |
Log-rank | ||||||
Median OS/month | 62 (55‒72) | 142 (129‒155) | ‒ | 106 (88‒129) | 116 (98‒132) | ‒ |
Median CSS/month | 79 (66‒107) | NA | ‒ | NA | NA | ‒ |
RMST | ||||||
60 months (5 years) survival time | 44.2 (43.0‒45.3) | 52.2 (51.5‒52.9) | 0.000 | 48.0 (46.7‒49.4) | 50.6 (49.4‒51.7) | 0.005 |
60 months (5 years) cancer specific survival time | 45.9 (44.8‒47.0) | 53.8 (53.2‒54.5) | 0.000 | 49.9 (48.7‒51.2) | 51.7 (50.6‒52.9) | 0.033 |
120 months (10 years) survival time | 70.1 (67.3‒72.8) | 90.3 (88.5‒92.1) | 0.000 | 80.3 (77.0‒83.6) | 84.6 (81.5‒87.6) | 0.065 |
120 months (10 years) cancer specific survival time | 75.2 (72.4‒78.1) | 96.6 (94.8‒98.3) | 0.000 | 86.3 (83.0‒89.6) | 89.6 (86.6‒92.7) | 0.147 |
图4 PSM前后S组和S+RT组的生存曲线Note: A. Survival curves of OS of the S group and the S+RT group before PSM. B. Survival curves of OS of the S group and the S+RT group after PSM. C. Survival curves of CSS of the S group and the S+RT group before PSM. D. Survival curves of CSS of the S group and the S+RT group after PSM.
Fig 4 Survival curves of the S group and the S+RT group before and after PSM
Factor | OS | CSS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | |
Group | ||||||||
S | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
RT+S | 0.77 (0.68‒0.88) | 0.000 | 0.73 (0.64‒0.83) | 0.000 | 0.75 (0.65‒0.87) | 0.000 | 0.71 (0.62‒0.82) | 0.000 |
Age | ||||||||
<50 years | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
≥50 years | 1.37 (1.15‒1.63) | 0.000 | 1.47 (1.23‒1.75) | 0.000 | 1.14 (0.95‒1.37) | 0.144 | ||
Gender | ||||||||
Male | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Female | 0.90 (0.79‒1.02) | 0.107 | 0.89 (0.77‒1.03) | 0.120 | ||||
Race | ||||||||
White | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Black | 1.32 (1.07‒1.62) | 0.010 | 1.27 (1.03‒1.57) | 0.025 | 1.43 (1.15‒1.79) | 0.002 | 1.38 (1.10‒1.73) | 0.005 |
Others | 0.96 (0.80‒1.14) | 0.623 | 1.03 (0.86‒1.23) | 0.733 | 0.96 (0.79‒1.16) | 0.659 | 1.02 (0.84‒1.24) | 0.858 |
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Others | 1.31 (1.15‒1.49) | 0.000 | 1.27 (1.11‒1.44) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.13‒1.50) | 0.000 | 1.27 (1.10‒1.46) | 0.001 |
Tumor histology | ||||||||
Adenocarcinoma | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Others | 0.96 (0.82‒1.12) | 0.598 | 0.95 (0.80‒1.13) | 0.572 | ||||
Tumor size | ||||||||
≤30 mm | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
>30‒50 mm | 1.54 (1.29‒1.85) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.08‒1.57) | 0.007 | 1.59 (1.29‒1.95) | 0.000 | 1.26 (1.02‒1.56) | 0.035 |
>50 mm | 1.96 (1.62‒2.37) | 0.000 | 1.60 (1.32‒1.95) | 0.000 | 2.13 (1.72‒2.63) | 0.000 | 1.56 (1.26‒1.95) | 0.000 |
Histologic grade | ||||||||
Well differentiated | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Moderately differentiated | 1.18 (0.81‒1.72) | 0.388 | 1.04 (0.71‒1.52) | 0.834 | 1.26 (0.82‒1.95) | 0.292 | 1.06 (0.68‒1.64) | 0.802 |
Poorly differentiated/ undifferentiated | 2.03 (1.37‒3.00) | 0.000 | 1.81 (1.22‒2.69) | 0.003 | 2.34 (1.50‒3.67) | 0.000 | 1.98 (1.26‒3.11) | 0.003 |
TNM stage | ||||||||
Ⅰ | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Ⅱ | 0.86 (0.59‒1.26) | 0.443 | 0.73 (0.49‒1.08) | 0.112 | 0.96 (0.60‒1.54) | 0.881 | 0.85 (0.53‒1.37) | 0.502 |
Ⅲ | 1.24 (0.89‒1.74) | 0.209 | 1.03 (0.73‒1.46) | 0.852 | 1.41 (0.93‒2.14) | 0.107 | 1.20 (0.79‒1.83) | 0.398 |
Ⅳ | 3.70 (2.64‒5.19) | 0.000 | 3.05 (2.16‒4.32) | 0.000 | 4.91 (3.25‒7.43) | 0.000 | 4.17 (2.73‒6.36) | 0.000 |
Regional nodes examined | ||||||||
<12 | Reference | Reference | ||||||
≥12 | 0.90 (0.79‒1.02) | 0.099 | 0.96 (0.83‒1.10) | 0.539 |
表5 RT+S组和S组直肠癌患者OS和CSS的单因素和多因素Cox回归分析
Tab 5 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of OS and CSS of rectal cancer patients between the RT+S group and the S group
Factor | OS | CSS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | |
Group | ||||||||
S | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
RT+S | 0.77 (0.68‒0.88) | 0.000 | 0.73 (0.64‒0.83) | 0.000 | 0.75 (0.65‒0.87) | 0.000 | 0.71 (0.62‒0.82) | 0.000 |
Age | ||||||||
<50 years | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
≥50 years | 1.37 (1.15‒1.63) | 0.000 | 1.47 (1.23‒1.75) | 0.000 | 1.14 (0.95‒1.37) | 0.144 | ||
Gender | ||||||||
Male | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Female | 0.90 (0.79‒1.02) | 0.107 | 0.89 (0.77‒1.03) | 0.120 | ||||
Race | ||||||||
White | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Black | 1.32 (1.07‒1.62) | 0.010 | 1.27 (1.03‒1.57) | 0.025 | 1.43 (1.15‒1.79) | 0.002 | 1.38 (1.10‒1.73) | 0.005 |
Others | 0.96 (0.80‒1.14) | 0.623 | 1.03 (0.86‒1.23) | 0.733 | 0.96 (0.79‒1.16) | 0.659 | 1.02 (0.84‒1.24) | 0.858 |
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Others | 1.31 (1.15‒1.49) | 0.000 | 1.27 (1.11‒1.44) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.13‒1.50) | 0.000 | 1.27 (1.10‒1.46) | 0.001 |
Tumor histology | ||||||||
Adenocarcinoma | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Others | 0.96 (0.82‒1.12) | 0.598 | 0.95 (0.80‒1.13) | 0.572 | ||||
Tumor size | ||||||||
≤30 mm | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
>30‒50 mm | 1.54 (1.29‒1.85) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.08‒1.57) | 0.007 | 1.59 (1.29‒1.95) | 0.000 | 1.26 (1.02‒1.56) | 0.035 |
>50 mm | 1.96 (1.62‒2.37) | 0.000 | 1.60 (1.32‒1.95) | 0.000 | 2.13 (1.72‒2.63) | 0.000 | 1.56 (1.26‒1.95) | 0.000 |
Histologic grade | ||||||||
Well differentiated | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Moderately differentiated | 1.18 (0.81‒1.72) | 0.388 | 1.04 (0.71‒1.52) | 0.834 | 1.26 (0.82‒1.95) | 0.292 | 1.06 (0.68‒1.64) | 0.802 |
Poorly differentiated/ undifferentiated | 2.03 (1.37‒3.00) | 0.000 | 1.81 (1.22‒2.69) | 0.003 | 2.34 (1.50‒3.67) | 0.000 | 1.98 (1.26‒3.11) | 0.003 |
TNM stage | ||||||||
Ⅰ | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Ⅱ | 0.86 (0.59‒1.26) | 0.443 | 0.73 (0.49‒1.08) | 0.112 | 0.96 (0.60‒1.54) | 0.881 | 0.85 (0.53‒1.37) | 0.502 |
Ⅲ | 1.24 (0.89‒1.74) | 0.209 | 1.03 (0.73‒1.46) | 0.852 | 1.41 (0.93‒2.14) | 0.107 | 1.20 (0.79‒1.83) | 0.398 |
Ⅳ | 3.70 (2.64‒5.19) | 0.000 | 3.05 (2.16‒4.32) | 0.000 | 4.91 (3.25‒7.43) | 0.000 | 4.17 (2.73‒6.36) | 0.000 |
Regional nodes examined | ||||||||
<12 | Reference | Reference | ||||||
≥12 | 0.90 (0.79‒1.02) | 0.099 | 0.96 (0.83‒1.10) | 0.539 |
Factor | OS | CSS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | |
Group | ||||||||
S | Reference | Reference | ||||||
S+RT | 1.12 (0.96‒1.30) | 0.150 | 1.13 (0.95‒1.34) | 0.166 | ||||
Age | ||||||||
<50 years | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
≥50 years | 1.55 (1.25‒1.92) | 0.000 | 1.82 (1.46‒2.26) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.04‒1.64) | 0.024 | 1.81 (1.45‒2.24) | 0.000 |
Gender | ||||||||
Male | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Female | 0.98 (0.84‒1.14) | 0.750 | 1.00 (0.84‒1.19) | 0.992 | ||||
Race | ||||||||
White | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
Black | 1.30 (1.01‒1.67) | 0.045 | 1.35 (1.04‒1.75) | 0.024 | 1.25 (0.94‒1.67) | 0.125 | ||
Others | 0.81 (0.65‒1.01) | 0.065 | 0.99 (0.79‒1.24) | 0.914 | 0.81 (0.63‒1.04) | 0.101 | ||
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Others | 1.43 (1.23‒1.67) | 0.000 | 1.35 (1.16‒1.58) | 0.000 | 1.42 (1.19‒1.68) | 0.000 | 1.39 (1.19‒1.62) | 0.000 |
Tumor histology | ||||||||
Adenocarcinoma | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Others | 1.07 (0.90‒1.27) | 0.426 | 1.14 (0.94‒1.38) | 0.185 | ||||
Tumor size | ||||||||
≤30 mm | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
>30‒50 mm | 1.78 (1.44‒2.21) | 0.000 | 1.64 (1.32‒2.05) | 0.000 | 1.90 (1.48‒2.43) | 0.000 | 1.64 (1.32‒2.05) | 0.000 |
>50 mm | 2.15 (1.72‒2.70) | 0.000 | 2.01 (1.59‒2.54) | 0.000 | 2.41 (1.86‒3.12) | 0.000 | 2.02 (1.60‒2.56) | 0.000 |
Histologic grade | ||||||||
Well differentiated | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Moderately differentiated | 0.94 (0.62‒1.44) | 0.790 | 0.88 (0.58‒1.34) | 0.549 | 1.08 (0.65‒1.78) | 0.771 | 0.89 (0.58‒1.35) | 0.574 |
Poorly differentiated/ undifferentiated | 1.58 (1.02‒2.45) | 0.041 | 1.38 (0.89‒2.16) | 0.150 | 1.86 (1.11‒3.13) | 0.019 | 1.40 (0.90‒2.17) | 0.139 |
TNM stage | ||||||||
Ⅰ | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Ⅱ | 1.11 (0.72‒1.70) | 0.635 | 0.78 (0.50‒1.22) | 0.280 | 1.48 (0.86‒2.55) | 0.160 | 0.76 (0.49‒1.19) | 0.232 |
Ⅲ | 1.45 (0.98‒2.12) | 0.060 | 1.10 (0.74‒1.64) | 0.634 | 1.88 (1.14‒3.12) | 0.014 | 1.07 (0.72‒1.58) | 0.753 |
Ⅳ | 4.67 (3.13‒6.98) | 0.000 | 3.54 (2.33‒5.38) | 0.000 | 7.30 (4.36‒12.23) | 0.000 | 3.39 (2.24‒5.15) | 0.000 |
Regional nodes examined | ||||||||
<12 | Reference | Reference | ||||||
≥12 | 0.89 (0.76‒1.04) | 0.137 | 0.99 (0.83‒1.18) | 0.894 |
表6 S组和S+RT组直肠癌患者OS和CSS的单因素和多因素Cox回归分析
Tab 6 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of OS and CSS of rectal cancer patients between the S group and the S+RT group
Factor | OS | CSS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | HR (95%CI) | P value | |
Group | ||||||||
S | Reference | Reference | ||||||
S+RT | 1.12 (0.96‒1.30) | 0.150 | 1.13 (0.95‒1.34) | 0.166 | ||||
Age | ||||||||
<50 years | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
≥50 years | 1.55 (1.25‒1.92) | 0.000 | 1.82 (1.46‒2.26) | 0.000 | 1.30 (1.04‒1.64) | 0.024 | 1.81 (1.45‒2.24) | 0.000 |
Gender | ||||||||
Male | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Female | 0.98 (0.84‒1.14) | 0.750 | 1.00 (0.84‒1.19) | 0.992 | ||||
Race | ||||||||
White | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
Black | 1.30 (1.01‒1.67) | 0.045 | 1.35 (1.04‒1.75) | 0.024 | 1.25 (0.94‒1.67) | 0.125 | ||
Others | 0.81 (0.65‒1.01) | 0.065 | 0.99 (0.79‒1.24) | 0.914 | 0.81 (0.63‒1.04) | 0.101 | ||
Marital status | ||||||||
Married | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Others | 1.43 (1.23‒1.67) | 0.000 | 1.35 (1.16‒1.58) | 0.000 | 1.42 (1.19‒1.68) | 0.000 | 1.39 (1.19‒1.62) | 0.000 |
Tumor histology | ||||||||
Adenocarcinoma | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Others | 1.07 (0.90‒1.27) | 0.426 | 1.14 (0.94‒1.38) | 0.185 | ||||
Tumor size | ||||||||
≤30 mm | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
>30‒50 mm | 1.78 (1.44‒2.21) | 0.000 | 1.64 (1.32‒2.05) | 0.000 | 1.90 (1.48‒2.43) | 0.000 | 1.64 (1.32‒2.05) | 0.000 |
>50 mm | 2.15 (1.72‒2.70) | 0.000 | 2.01 (1.59‒2.54) | 0.000 | 2.41 (1.86‒3.12) | 0.000 | 2.02 (1.60‒2.56) | 0.000 |
Histologic grade | ||||||||
Well differentiated | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Moderately differentiated | 0.94 (0.62‒1.44) | 0.790 | 0.88 (0.58‒1.34) | 0.549 | 1.08 (0.65‒1.78) | 0.771 | 0.89 (0.58‒1.35) | 0.574 |
Poorly differentiated/ undifferentiated | 1.58 (1.02‒2.45) | 0.041 | 1.38 (0.89‒2.16) | 0.150 | 1.86 (1.11‒3.13) | 0.019 | 1.40 (0.90‒2.17) | 0.139 |
TNM stage | ||||||||
Ⅰ | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | ||||
Ⅱ | 1.11 (0.72‒1.70) | 0.635 | 0.78 (0.50‒1.22) | 0.280 | 1.48 (0.86‒2.55) | 0.160 | 0.76 (0.49‒1.19) | 0.232 |
Ⅲ | 1.45 (0.98‒2.12) | 0.060 | 1.10 (0.74‒1.64) | 0.634 | 1.88 (1.14‒3.12) | 0.014 | 1.07 (0.72‒1.58) | 0.753 |
Ⅳ | 4.67 (3.13‒6.98) | 0.000 | 3.54 (2.33‒5.38) | 0.000 | 7.30 (4.36‒12.23) | 0.000 | 3.39 (2.24‒5.15) | 0.000 |
Regional nodes examined | ||||||||
<12 | Reference | Reference | ||||||
≥12 | 0.89 (0.76‒1.04) | 0.137 | 0.99 (0.83‒1.18) | 0.894 |
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